The bonds had a crazy up move yesterday the biggest move since 1962. I don’t think the TLT (20 year bonds) can hold price it may test the 108.07 price high yesterday. I am shorting this with the TBT.

The financials got a boost but this will not last. The chart below shows the price hitting the mid-upper channel. I am shorting with FAZ…be careful this is 3x leverage ETF… here we go DannyS.

Today’s action was sleepy on the overall market with little movement. In addition we are over bought and ready for a pullback.  I decided to go long the TLT by shorting the TBT…huh?? Yes, I shorted the double short which means I went long….got that.  The TLT did not fill the gap which it may tomorrow so I am holding on.

I also went bearish on the S&P and bought the SDS which is 2x short the SPY. The chart below is the SDS which shows good support at $70-71. We pulled back on lighter volume and should head up to the $90-95 range. Lets see how the market pulls back this week.

In my previous post I sold my position in the TBT which is the short for the TLT (see chart below). The TLT looks like it still wants to fall down to 100 where there is good support. This means the TBT could run up to $52 then head down to $43 for a $9 fall. If the volume is light on the TBT at $50-52 I will short this.

Oil related stocks are holding well. I have positions in USO and PBR and HK. Below is a chart for PBR where I entered at $26 on the pullback to support. Its acting nice and should run up to$ 34-35 where I would sell if volume dies.

HK had a similar pattern as it pullback on lighter volume in the green circle and where I bought at $19.50. This should run up to $25.

Gold has had a great run the past 2 weeks and due for a pullback to $80-84 on the GLD. My miner stocks like DGP, RGLD, GBG, AUY, GG have had great runs +30-40%. I have sold most of the positions and will buy back on the pullback.

The overall market is weak so far this weak with little buying pressure. The past two days we closed higher on progressively lighter volume = bad sign!! We may be setting up an ABC down pattern. If the SPY tests the last swing high of $85.99 on volume less than 399 million were heading down to between $75-80. I may enter the SDS tomorrow.

Like I said yesterday the TLT (20 year bond) is due for a bounce up which meant the TBT (short TLT) should pullback. I sold my holdings for a nice +17% profit. I am looking to buy back when the TBT gets in the price range of  $41-42 and light volume less than 5.6 million shares.

Gold is strong but is pulling back to $82-85. I will continue to hold my mining stocks but did sell my DGP holding today. 

My caution radar is signalling that I should be getting nervous. The major indexes closed little higher but on lighter volume. I will watch the market and may go short buying the SDS, DXD and FAZ.

The TLT has fallen $10 in 6 straight days. I am short this buying the TBT entered at $38.99 and have a limit sell at $48. I’m currently up +17% in 6 days. This one has worked like a charm with the volume lighting I ready to sell. 

 

I am in DAG long agriculture. It retraced nicely back down to support at $9.00. I’m looking for this to climb up to $11 first then up to $14.

I have been following the crazy ride of the TLT ( iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond) and it’s so way over bought. This article on Bloomberg also talked about  “Time to sell Treasuries“.  I thus entered into the TBT which is an inverse ETF of the TLT. As you can see from this chart of the TLT there is heavy down volume pressure on Jan 5. On Friday we just missed the high of the Jan 5 by $0.07 and closed to the downside. If we move down on more than 4 million shares and can break the $111 price we are fall further to $103 range.

I entered into the TBT on Thursday and have my stop just below the day low of $38.41. This should go to $42.96 first then…..up to $50 if the bond does breakdown.

I am still bullish on gold going higher into February as the US Dollar weakens. I am long AZK, ANR, DGP, AUY, GBG, GG.

Also bought on Friday for a quick play on TNA (Small Cap Bull 3X Shares) it is basically 3x leverage on the Russell 2000 which is use the IWM for the proxy. It was good to see another trader that I follow at Buying on the Dip also call this trade for TNA…….up up up we go to $40.