I have been following the crazy ride of the TLT ( iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond) and it’s so way over bought. This article on Bloomberg also talked about  “Time to sell Treasuries“.  I thus entered into the TBT which is an inverse ETF of the TLT. As you can see from this chart of the TLT there is heavy down volume pressure on Jan 5. On Friday we just missed the high of the Jan 5 by $0.07 and closed to the downside. If we move down on more than 4 million shares and can break the $111 price we are fall further to $103 range.

I entered into the TBT on Thursday and have my stop just below the day low of $38.41. This should go to $42.96 first then…..up to $50 if the bond does breakdown.

I am still bullish on gold going higher into February as the US Dollar weakens. I am long AZK, ANR, DGP, AUY, GBG, GG.

Also bought on Friday for a quick play on TNA (Small Cap Bull 3X Shares) it is basically 3x leverage on the Russell 2000 which is use the IWM for the proxy. It was good to see another trader that I follow at Buying on the Dip also call this trade for TNA…….up up up we go to $40.

With all the recession news and the Fed pumping billions of dollars into the economy this can only lead to one thing - the devaluation of the US dollar. This will lead to commodity prices to rise so watch for gold, oil, and agriculture products like corn, wheat, sugar to all get more expensive. Basically as the US dollar falls these hard assets will rise. Eric Bolling wrote a good post today Commodity Opportunities Abound on The Street about this same reasoning.

So in 2009 I will be mostly trading these gold stocks and ETFs: GLD, DGP, AEM, HMY, RGLD, ABX, GOLD, AZK,

For oil related securities I like to trade DXO, USO, XLE

For commodities related securities I like to trade DBA, DBC

Gold was punished this week with the strength of the US dollar but that will be short lived. Gold prices went down but could not close below the breakout on Nov 19, see the chart below of the DGP (2x Gold ETF). On Friday I bought DGP at $13.20 and heading up to $16.46. I also have positions in AEM, RGLD, GOLD.

Also the financials XLF got inside the range on Oct 10 by closing over $12.79. The XLF should now make a run up to $16.53 and maybe up to the next swing high of $17.87. I am long the UYG (2x XLF RTF)

Friday saw a great rally with options expiration. Volume was as expected now comes the hard part of following through this week as it will be short week due to Thanksgiving. The bloggers are mostly calling for a bounce up and I see nothing more. If we can get into the the price range on 11/13 for the SPY at $82.09 then we may see action up to $90 which would be a 10-12% move. If we get up into the $90 price on SPY I would go short again with SDS.

Gold was the big play on Friday going up $43. Below is a chart of the GLD ETF. All the miners were up big like AEM, GG, HMY, GOLD, IAG, ASA, RGLD. I think gold will run up to $810- 850 then pull back to around $760.

Yesterday we saw an amazing pop in gold up $70 in one day which was a record. I have been holding RBY, GLD, GOLD, IAG for double digit gains and with more upside as investors want to go to safety. Gold may retrace down to 820-860 which is great buying opportunity. Gold want to test the old highs of $980 back in July 15.

The market is turning back up this morning as it was down for a while. I do not see much action today as we are waiting for the government job report tomorrow. I don’t expect much action today. I entered into a long trade with Royal Gold (RGLD) at $32.50 this morning. It showed great resistance bouncing off the EMA(21) and now above the EMA(9) these are magic support lines. Additionally there was a high volume high on 8/8 at $31.83 with 1.8MM shares. Keep your stop just under the EMA(9).

AIRN - [[AIRN]] This is acting nice this morning up 3% at $2.67 on already stronger volume then yesterday. This is still on track to head towards $3.00.