The overall market is weak so far this weak with little buying pressure. The past two days we closed higher on progressively lighter volume = bad sign!! We may be setting up an ABC down pattern. If the SPY tests the last swing high of $85.99 on volume less than 399 million were heading down to between $75-80. I may enter the SDS tomorrow.

Like I said yesterday the TLT (20 year bond) is due for a bounce up which meant the TBT (short TLT) should pullback. I sold my holdings for a nice +17% profit. I am looking to buy back when the TBT gets in the price range of  $41-42 and light volume less than 5.6 million shares.

Gold is strong but is pulling back to $82-85. I will continue to hold my mining stocks but did sell my DGP holding today. 

I have been following the crazy ride of the TLT ( iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond) and it’s so way over bought. This article on Bloomberg also talked about  “Time to sell Treasuries“.  I thus entered into the TBT which is an inverse ETF of the TLT. As you can see from this chart of the TLT there is heavy down volume pressure on Jan 5. On Friday we just missed the high of the Jan 5 by $0.07 and closed to the downside. If we move down on more than 4 million shares and can break the $111 price we are fall further to $103 range.

I entered into the TBT on Thursday and have my stop just below the day low of $38.41. This should go to $42.96 first then…..up to $50 if the bond does breakdown.

I am still bullish on gold going higher into February as the US Dollar weakens. I am long AZK, ANR, DGP, AUY, GBG, GG.

Also bought on Friday for a quick play on TNA (Small Cap Bull 3X Shares) it is basically 3x leverage on the Russell 2000 which is use the IWM for the proxy. It was good to see another trader that I follow at Buying on the Dip also call this trade for TNA…….up up up we go to $40.

With all the recession news and the Fed pumping billions of dollars into the economy this can only lead to one thing - the devaluation of the US dollar. This will lead to commodity prices to rise so watch for gold, oil, and agriculture products like corn, wheat, sugar to all get more expensive. Basically as the US dollar falls these hard assets will rise. Eric Bolling wrote a good post today Commodity Opportunities Abound on The Street about this same reasoning.

So in 2009 I will be mostly trading these gold stocks and ETFs: GLD, DGP, AEM, HMY, RGLD, ABX, GOLD, AZK,

For oil related securities I like to trade DXO, USO, XLE

For commodities related securities I like to trade DBA, DBC

Gold was punished this week with the strength of the US dollar but that will be short lived. Gold prices went down but could not close below the breakout on Nov 19, see the chart below of the DGP (2x Gold ETF). On Friday I bought DGP at $13.20 and heading up to $16.46. I also have positions in AEM, RGLD, GOLD.

Also the financials XLF got inside the range on Oct 10 by closing over $12.79. The XLF should now make a run up to $16.53 and maybe up to the next swing high of $17.87. I am long the UYG (2x XLF RTF)

I suspect that this week will be an up week. We have hit temporary lows with massive short covering and margin calls galore. We are extremely oversold here and time for a bounce up.

Look at the SPY below which is a 1 year weekly chart. Last week we went to test the low but did no break it on lighter volume. We closed above the open of the week which is bullish. I think were going to up to $105 on the SPY. I am long the SSO currently

Below is a 1 year weekly chart of the GLD (gold ETF that is 10% of the spot price of gold). Last week went went lower to test 9/15 lows, went down on lighter volume (which mean less sellers) and closed above the open. This is bullish which is why I am bullish on gold and buying more of the DGP (Ultralong gold ETF)

I am also long on UWM, DDM, SSO, MOS, DGP, QLD, UYG, UYM and now DIG (I think oil is heading up again).