I have been following the crazy ride of the TLT ( iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond) and it’s so way over bought. This article on Bloomberg also talked about  “Time to sell Treasuries“.  I thus entered into the TBT which is an inverse ETF of the TLT. As you can see from this chart of the TLT there is heavy down volume pressure on Jan 5. On Friday we just missed the high of the Jan 5 by $0.07 and closed to the downside. If we move down on more than 4 million shares and can break the $111 price we are fall further to $103 range.

I entered into the TBT on Thursday and have my stop just below the day low of $38.41. This should go to $42.96 first then…..up to $50 if the bond does breakdown.

I am still bullish on gold going higher into February as the US Dollar weakens. I am long AZK, ANR, DGP, AUY, GBG, GG.

Also bought on Friday for a quick play on TNA (Small Cap Bull 3X Shares) it is basically 3x leverage on the Russell 2000 which is use the IWM for the proxy. It was good to see another trader that I follow at Buying on the Dip also call this trade for TNA…….up up up we go to $40.

With all the recession news and the Fed pumping billions of dollars into the economy this can only lead to one thing - the devaluation of the US dollar. This will lead to commodity prices to rise so watch for gold, oil, and agriculture products like corn, wheat, sugar to all get more expensive. Basically as the US dollar falls these hard assets will rise. Eric Bolling wrote a good post today Commodity Opportunities Abound on The Street about this same reasoning.

So in 2009 I will be mostly trading these gold stocks and ETFs: GLD, DGP, AEM, HMY, RGLD, ABX, GOLD, AZK,

For oil related securities I like to trade DXO, USO, XLE

For commodities related securities I like to trade DBA, DBC

This morning I placed a few limit orders that triggered and bought the following.

DRYS at $54.00

EXM at $22.61. I also saw a fellow trader at StockRake place this trade.

BG at $71.2

LVS at $40.70

I also took partial profits from AZK, VLNC and got stopped out of JNJ.

What a disaster the government has put us in. The ignorance. They kept saying we were not in a recession….what do you call then having to bail out Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG! Back on April 22, 2008 President Bush said “Were not in a recession” this was such a lie trying to blind side the general public.

Now with the proposed $700 Billion dollar bail out we will have diverted the toxic debt from the balance sheet of these companies but their future revenue is still broken and weak. The burden now is on the tax paying public. This will take years to pay off.

The euphoria we saw on Friday was just that an over reaction on the market. Do not be fooled by it. Yes, the financials gaped up in morning and short selling was not permitted yet the price kept coming down after the gap up???? Ask yourself…..Should the financials be going up or down with this news? The market was artificially hampered with the inability to short financials.

My outlook for next week is that the broad mark may rise about 5% but then sellers will come in to get out of loosing positions. I did try to get into the UYG on friday and missed it by $0.95 when it gapped up. I think the SPY will try to run up to $130 level where I would short this market. Were still in a dowtrend and the volume on Frida was less than the previous 4 days. Were heading back downt to retest $114.

Now I missed this run and will wait for the pull back. It’s too risky to trade the financials now. Instead I would buy GOLD stocks and the GLD. Investors will hedge their investments with gold.

My current holdings are : AZK, FCX, GLD, NNVC, NTES, PWAV, SDP, VLNC, WNR, JNJ, WMT, CLNE.