Really nice chart from dchart.com comparing the big bear markets since 1929. The question is “Are we at the bottom now?” We have retraced down 52% which is near the retracements of the last three bear markets but nowhere near the 1929 - 1932 for an 89% retracement!!!!! Are the times really different now that we are smarter with the financial system or just more complicated compounding the severity?

The major indexes pulled back last week buy had a nice rally on Thursday. Below is a chart of the SPY which shows big price spread on Thursday on big up volume. Even though Friday we closed down we ended up inside the trading range of Thursday which is positive. I expect the SPY yo climb up to $95 this week then maybe $100.

Below is the XLF (Financial ETF) which reacted the same way as the SPY - the financials are a large portion of the SPY. I think the XLF will also test the $15 price then $17.

The market lost 10% in only 2 days!!! But wait there is more…the downside volume to light.

Check out the chart of the SPY. I circled the positive high volume days. As you can see today was just people taking profits from last weeks run up. The selling volume is much lighter and the price touched $90 today which is support. I bought SDS 2 days ago at the turn sold them today at $88…a bit too early for an +10% profit.

The SPY, DIA, IWM and QQQQ all reached the high volume high support today so I bought SSO, QLD, UWM, and DDM and TGB. Let see if I’m right and get a turn back up.

With the elections on a few days away the market will rise higher on all the energy and buzz. Below are my targets for the week on the market ETFs to hit then we should get a light pullback if we are truely out of the bear market.

Spiders (SPY) - high of $100 -$105 then I would be cautious.

Diamonds (DIA) high of $97-$100 then I would be cautious.

PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) high of $35-$36then I would be cautious.

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)

The US Dollar is due for a pullback. As shown in the chart below of the UUP, friday’s volume was very low on an up day which means there are few buyers. I highlighted in the green circle where I expect the price to fall to. This should take about 5-8 weeks to get too. This means I am bearish on the US dollar which I posted on Oct 23. You can buy the UDN which is the bearish US dollar ETF

After the 50 basis point rate cut today the market closed mostly flat. The Asian markets followed through with a HUGE rally.

The US dollar is falling again which is good for gold. Below is a chart of the Gold ETF (GLD) which is 10% of the spot price of gold. My target is $85 then to $92.

What amazing action today……I do believe that we will see another one of these days. I am guessing a 2000 point move in the $DJI.

I am long DGP, RGLD, HMY, DIG, RIO, X, SSO, DDM, FCX, PCU, MA, BIDU, SINA and GS. I am also bearish on the US Dollar which is why I think commodities are going back up and why I like gold and oil stocks.

I had a great buy on Goldman(GS) this morning when it was down -10% but the market was up. I just had a feeling the down pressure was a fake and bought at $84 and today it closed at $93.57. An almost $10 gain. Look at the green buy zone and my sell target is $130 range.

Will the DIA break into $90 then pull back then climb up to $100? What do you think?

I still feel that we have hit the bottom for now. Even though price keeps coming down the volume lightens up. Today we saw massive selling in Asia but now they bounced back up.

As I write this the futures are up the Dow +285 and S&P +34. If we get a pull back tomorrow and go under the lows and close high that’s a really bullish sign.

The US Dollar Index looks toppy against the EURO. Below is a chart of the UUP which is the long US Dollar ETF. As you can see there is big volume at the low and we are going to higher highs on lighter volume. I went short this ETF by buying Dec PUTS. If this holds true then commodities will go up like gold, steel and oil.

Below is a chart of the DIG (Ultralong Oil & Gas ETF) I put in a buy order at $25.75 looking to go to $40.

I suspect that this week will be an up week. We have hit temporary lows with massive short covering and margin calls galore. We are extremely oversold here and time for a bounce up.

Look at the SPY below which is a 1 year weekly chart. Last week we went to test the low but did no break it on lighter volume. We closed above the open of the week which is bullish. I think were going to up to $105 on the SPY. I am long the SSO currently

Below is a 1 year weekly chart of the GLD (gold ETF that is 10% of the spot price of gold). Last week went went lower to test 9/15 lows, went down on lighter volume (which mean less sellers) and closed above the open. This is bullish which is why I am bullish on gold and buying more of the DGP (Ultralong gold ETF)

I am also long on UWM, DDM, SSO, MOS, DGP, QLD, UYG, UYM and now DIG (I think oil is heading up again).