Overall market so far is anemic. Shorting the [[XLF]] which is the Financial ETF. The XLF hit the resistance at $32 this morning and is heading down. You can either buy the [[SKF]] which is 2x the inverse of the XLF or buy puts. Bernanke will announce Fed rates on Dec 11 when he will probably cut another 25 basis points to increase liquidity. Thats a time to buy gold and commodity related stocks.

I bought the [[SDS]] today at $50.05 since the price went lower on lighter volume - this is just a classic pullback. The SDS is testing the lower trend line and may go to 54.80 before going up. The SDS is 200% the inverse of the price movement of the S&P 500.

I am bearish on the overall S&P which went higher today on lighter volume which is bearish. Just look at what happened on 9/4 where the price hit a high of $149.98 then fell down. Price broke out of the red down trend line but will fall back in since there is no support.

The SDS chart below is the inverse of the one above. My first target is 58.00 and the second at $60.50 where there is big resistance. I am making this trade ahead of the Sept 18th Fed announcement which I think will bring the market down. I will keep my stops tight somewhere around $54.

Crocs took a big hit today closing at $56.38 on big volume of 13 million shares. I expect that it will fall down to around $49. It tested the $59 price about 5 times but could not close above it with volume and also broke the rising channel.

As I mentioned in my previous post the other day Apple would sell off after the news from Steve Jobs about the new iPods. This was a classic sell on the news. This was huge volume at 83 million shares down $7.93 it will now head south to the next high volume support at $111.62 on August 16 which had 66 million shares. I am expecting a $25 drop by the end of this month. Do not buy this stock until you see the price test 111.62 on light volume then see a sign of strength the following days on big volume. Fourth quarter is a good time to buy tech stocks so keep this on your watch list to buy around 110 - 120.

Goldman Sachs [[GS]] does not look good this week. It broke a rising price channel on Aug 13 on strong volume of 121 million shares and there was not any strong volume the next few days. It may try to test 180 this week but it’s on its way down to 150 to 140.

I really love Apple [[AAPL]] for their iMacs, iPod and now the iPhone. As you can see below I have posted 3 charts that show the monthly, weekly and daily performance of the stock. Overall the stock is in an uptrend as shown in the monthly charts below. But currently is above the upper rising trend line it needs to come down to between 100 to 120 otherwise it’s overbought.

The weekly chart shows that 3 weeks ago on the week of August 13 we retraced down and bounced off the upper trend line. There is a price point of about 144 that needs to be tested. I think next week we will see a bounce on Tuesday or Wednesday to 144 on lighter volume.

The daily charts went over the swing high of 137.24 went over but closed just above this high. Also Apple is having a press conference on Sept 5, and the speculation is that they will announce new iPods with touchscreen capabilities and maybe other iPhone models. So you know what they say sell on the news.

So I would wait to see what happens on Wednesday and possible short the stock just before the close or wait until Thursday. The short would be in the 140 to 144 range and down to 119 to 126.

Today [[RIO]] tested the previous high on 8/27 of $49.28, it went over it at 49.37 and closed under it at 47.97. Additionally we were lighter by 1 million shares which means that there are no more buyers. This may have legs tomorrow to test the last high on 8/8 of 49.39 but otherwise this is going south. I am currently short with OCT PUTs.

[[RIO]] looks like a short now at 45.04, the target is 41.00. We need to fill that gap up on August 21 at a high of 41.45. Yesterday we could not break the high and we did it on lighter volume then Aug 8. This means not enough buyers versus sellers.

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