Friday saw a great rally with options expiration. Volume was as expected now comes the hard part of following through this week as it will be short week due to Thanksgiving. The bloggers are mostly calling for a bounce up and I see nothing more. If we can get into the the price range on 11/13 for the SPY at $82.09 then we may see action up to $90 which would be a 10-12% move. If we get up into the $90 price on SPY I would go short again with SDS.

Gold was the big play on Friday going up $43. Below is a chart of the GLD ETF. All the miners were up big like AEM, GG, HMY, GOLD, IAG, ASA, RGLD. I think gold will run up to $810- 850 then pull back to around $760.

Really nice chart from dchart.com comparing the big bear markets since 1929. The question is “Are we at the bottom now?” We have retraced down 52% which is near the retracements of the last three bear markets but nowhere near the 1929 - 1932 for an 89% retracement!!!!! Are the times really different now that we are smarter with the financial system or just more complicated compounding the severity?

The major indexes pulled back last week buy had a nice rally on Thursday. Below is a chart of the SPY which shows big price spread on Thursday on big up volume. Even though Friday we closed down we ended up inside the trading range of Thursday which is positive. I expect the SPY yo climb up to $95 this week then maybe $100.

Below is the XLF (Financial ETF) which reacted the same way as the SPY - the financials are a large portion of the SPY. I think the XLF will also test the $15 price then $17.

The major indexes climbed up to election and sold on the news after Obama won. Then we sold off Wednesday and Thursday on strong volume which I did not like that much even though I profited from it with SDS. I went long again on Friday but the overall volume was not strong enough for me. This makes it difficult to know which way we are heading this week but I still remain bullish. As of this writing the futures are all positive. China just pumped $568 billion into their market today and the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up over +5%.

I will enter into TAN a solar ETF on Monday near this pullback at $10.70. It wants to run up to $15 for a nice profit.

I also like 99 Cents Store (NDN) as it pulled back on lighter volume at $11 support. Below is a weekly 2 year chart showing the support and I think it will run up to $16. Put stops below 10.50.

The market lost 10% in only 2 days!!! But wait there is more…the downside volume to light.

Check out the chart of the SPY. I circled the positive high volume days. As you can see today was just people taking profits from last weeks run up. The selling volume is much lighter and the price touched $90 today which is support. I bought SDS 2 days ago at the turn sold them today at $88…a bit too early for an +10% profit.

The SPY, DIA, IWM and QQQQ all reached the high volume high support today so I bought SSO, QLD, UWM, and DDM and TGB. Let see if I’m right and get a turn back up.

With the elections on a few days away the market will rise higher on all the energy and buzz. Below are my targets for the week on the market ETFs to hit then we should get a light pullback if we are truely out of the bear market.

Spiders (SPY) - high of $100 -$105 then I would be cautious.

Diamonds (DIA) high of $97-$100 then I would be cautious.

PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) high of $35-$36then I would be cautious.

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)

The US Dollar is due for a pullback. As shown in the chart below of the UUP, friday’s volume was very low on an up day which means there are few buyers. I highlighted in the green circle where I expect the price to fall to. This should take about 5-8 weeks to get too. This means I am bearish on the US dollar which I posted on Oct 23. You can buy the UDN which is the bearish US dollar ETF