Like I said the XLF looked oversold which is why I took profits on my TWM for +19% in about a week but I could have may more….but it still a profit. The market turned around this afternoon. We will see a bounce up for the rest of the week but this is not a time to go very long unless your already in the gold stocks. I suggest you wait until next week and buy the SKF to short the financials.

I am buying AGU in the morning for a quick trade. Very positive price action today it touched the support at $65, filled the gap and turned up. My first target is $85.

Also buying LFC which I said on Monday that if it went over $76 on more than 2.6 million shares….and it did today. I’m buying for a trade in the morning. First target is $88.

Buying NYX it went under yesterday’s low and closed above the high of yesterday and on stronger volume - positive close. First target will be $90.

My gold stocks GFI, GSS, RGLD are all up nice since last week +17.7%, +9.9%, +12.0% respectively.

WFR got smacked hard today and hit the $70 mark but on much too much volume. Now it will probably test the $65 price. before we look into any buying.

BG (which I’m currently in at $122) did climb up to my first target of $131 but then retreated which I don’t like.

XLF went down further today last in the day on heavy volume which surprised a lot of other traders and Tim Knight. I’m going to wait for the XLF to bounce up to around $30 then short using the SKF.

I think the overall market is oversold and ready to turn in a day or two which is why I sold my TWM shares today. WFR got smacked today down -7.3%. Wait for this to test $70 and look for strength before entering.

I bought BG today at $122.00 my first target is $130-135.

Keep your eye these stocks if the market turns up:

CPO if it can climb over $37.75 on more than 1 million shares.

ICE if it can climb over $175 on more than 2.5 million shares.

IVGN if climbs over $93 on more than 800,000 shares.

LFC if climbs over $76 on more than 2.6 million shares.

XLF looks like it’s ready to turn up for a few days, overall I am still bearish of financials . I don’t recommend a long trade but wait for this to bounce up to about $30 then short this sucker using the SKF. I would buy the SKF between $96-100 and let it ride up to $115.

Closing TWM trade this morning for +19% profit (Bought at $65.01, sold at $77.37) as there should be a bounce in the IWM for the next few days. I will look to reenter TWM around $71-73.

LONG - Gold, Commodities, Oil, Solar, Mobile, Agriculture, BRIC, Euro, Canadian Dollar

SHORT - Financials, Real Estate, Russell 2000, US Dollar, Transports

Now that 2008 has begun swinging we saw a big drop on Friday with the major market indexes down 2-3%. In 2008 the market will be volatile as we continue to deal with the sub-prime mess in financials and the weakening US Dollar. Oil will continue to rise to over $100 a barrel (it will reach $125 this year) and gold will climb to $1,000 before the end of the year. As oil climbs so will the interest in alternative energies sources like solar, oil sands, and ethanol. I am not a big fan of ethanol especially since they want to use corn which will inevitably raise food prices - there is just not enough being planted in the US which means we need to import more. Why don’t we use sugar instead? it’s easier to grow and less demanding on the soil. It’s a political play for the farmers who get big subsidies from the government.

So below are some of the themes and stocks that I will be trading this year. I have also included some corrosponding ETFs that you can trade if you don’t want to own a particular stock.

Commodities - Gold, Copper, Steel (Long because of BRIC and lower US Dollar)
Gold Fields (GFI)
Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)
Royal Gold (RGLD)
Barrack Gold (ABX)
Freeport Mcmoran (FCX)
Taseko Mines (TGB)
streetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD) - Trades at near 10% of spot gold price
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) - Gold miners ETF

Steel Dynamics (STLD)
Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO)
Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX) - Steel ETF

Solar Energies - Solar (Long)
First Solar (FSLR)
Evergreen Solar (ESLR)
MEMC Electronic (WFR) - They make the silicon wafers for solar and chip makers
Yingli Green Energy (YGE) - China solar play
PowerShares Clean Energy ETF (PBW) - Good ETF for clean energy stocks

Agriculture (Long, I don’t like ethanol stocks but love the fertilizes that supply them)
Agrium (AGU) - Corn and crops need fertilizer…..$$$
Potash (POT) - Corn and crops need fertilizer…..$$$
Mosaic (MOS) - Corn and crops need fertilizer…..$$$
Corn Products Int. (CPO) - Corn processor
Bunge (BG) - Soybean processor

PowerShare Agriculture (DBA) - ETF thats invests in corn, soy beans, wheat, and sugar
PowerShares Commodities (DBC) - ETF thats tracks much like the DBA but also includes oil, gold, and steel.

How to Trade the Indexes in 2008
UltraShort Russell 2000 ETF (TWM) - Money will be moving out of small caps and into large caps, so Russell will go lower.
UltraShort Financials ETF (SKF) - Financials especially with exposure to mortgage loans will take all 2008 to bottom
Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) - just good to trade long and use the QID below to trade short.
UltraShort Nasdaq 100 ETF (QID) - Very cool ETF that is 2x short the Qs but trade carefully it moves fast.

Stocks I like to Trade in 2008
TransOcean (RIG) - Best in deep sea drilling. They make more money the higher the price of oil
Apple (AAPL) - continues to make fantastic consumer products
Goldman Sachs (GS) - money making machine…
Master Card (MA) - The more Americans are in debt the more they make $$$$
InterContinental Exhange (ICE) - Higher trading volume means more money
Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) - They make robotic surgery machines, very cool

Good luck with your trades and mine

Bought TWM last week at $65.01 on Dec 27. The IWM was showing much weakness and the TWM is 2x the short of IWM. Currently I’m up +10% as it trades at 72.08. this will want to run up to $76.

Entered into BG at $121.90 very strong volume today. Soybeans will continue to go up as international demand will drive prices. This will want to run up to at least $130.

Entered into VGZ at $5.29 on strong volume as gold continues to get stronger. My target is between $6.25 to $6.50.